Harvard Studies Discover Social Distancing May Be Needed For Next 2 Years
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(IBEXNews) - Politicians and average citizens are itching to get American businesses reopened quickly as the country struggles with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. But according to Harvard researchers in a study published on Tuesday, there can be no sudden shift that will get everything back to normal.
The study shows, instead, that the best path is a strategy of on-and-off social distancing that could last for the next two years. That’s because researchers predict a resurgence in coronavirus infections once this one-time stretch of social distancing measures are lifted, and barring the development of effective treatment or an increase in hospital capacity, the health care system will once again find itself threatened with an overwhelming number of patients.
Some degree of social distancing may still be needed in the US until 2022 to prevent large outbreaks of coronavirus, according to a group of Harvard disease experts.
Though the study isn’t a formal recommendation to the country’s leaders, it outlines a way forward in which social distancing restrictions are lifted and then re-imposed, creating a series of manageable, smaller outbreaks of COVID-19. Over time, these periods will lead to a build-up of herd immunity, which leads to fewer people vulnerable to the virus.
“Several rounds of social distancing will be required to get us to ‘herd immunity,’ in the absence of vaccination,” said Harvard epidemiologist and study co-author Dr. Marc Lipsitch at a press conference on Tuesday.
Though the White House Coronavirus Task Force predicts that the coronavirus outbreak will end in the summer, the researchers also warn of a major wave set for next winter, one that could overlap with flu season and push hospitals’ limits. It will be a difficult balancing act, they say, to weigh the economic, social and educational drawbacks of social distancing against its ability to save lives.
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